Water scarcity is no longer a distant development challenge. It is becoming a sovereign risk issue and an investment issue. In many countries, the reliability of rivers, reservoirs and groundwater is being reshaped by drought, heat, salinity intrusion and growing demand from cities, industry, energy and agriculture. The United Nations notes that 2.2 billion people still lacked safely managed drinking water in 2024, while water stress remains high in many regions and is expected to worsen as climate change advances (United Nations, 2026). For those of us working at the intersection of climate investment and resilient infrastructure, this changes the way desalination should be viewed.
Desalination has often been treated as a last resort. It was seen as expensive, energy intensive and environmentally difficult. That criticism was not misplaced. Conventional plants can place heavy demand on electricity systems and poorly managed brine can harm marine ecosystems. Yet the more useful question today is not whether desalination is good or bad in the abstract. The real question is what kind of desalination can support climate adaptation without locking countries into high carbon, high cost and ecologically weak infrastructure.
My view is that the next generation of desalination is not a single technology. It is an integrated climate infrastructure platform/nexus. It combines four design principles that should now guide public authorities, utilities, investors and technology providers. These are energy efficiency, renewable energy integration, circular desalination and digital intelligence.
The first principle is energy efficiency. Reverse osmosis remains the dominant technology for many large seawater desalination systems, but the economics and emissions profile depend heavily on energy recovery, membrane performance and operational discipline. The Carlsbad Desalination Plant in California shows why this matters. The plant was developed through a public private partnership and provides up to 56,000 acre feet of desalinated seawater per year, approximately 10 percent of the San Diego region’s water demand, while serving about 400,000 people (San Diego County Water Authority, n.d.). Its value is not only the volume of water produced. Its strategic value lies in diversifying a drought exposed supply portfolio with a locally controlled source. Public reporting also points to extensive environmental monitoring, with assessments indicating that waters near the plant remain healthy and that discharge has not disturbed receiving water quality outside the brine mixing zone (San Diego County Water Authority, 2025). For business leaders, the lesson is clear. Desalination becomes more investable when energy performance and environmental accountability are built into the asset from the beginning.
The second principle is renewable integration. Desalination cannot scale credibly if it simply transfers water risk into carbon risk. The industry is moving toward plants that are designed around lower energy intensity, smarter power systems and greater compatibility with renewables. Israel’s Sorek II facility is one example of this direction. IDE Technologies describes Sorek II as a 672,000 cubic metre per day seawater reverse osmosis plant commissioned in 2024, developed under a build operate transfer model, with energy centre design, modular architecture, carbon capture and utilization, and self production of chemicals as part of its sustainability approach (IDE Technologies, n.d.). The details matter because they show a shift from treating desalination as a stand alone utility plant to treating it as an engineered system where water, energy, chemicals and carbon are optimized together.
The third principle is circular desalination. Historically, brine has been viewed as a waste stream. That mindset is changing. Concentrated brine can contain recoverable salts and minerals, and future projects will increasingly be judged by whether they reduce waste while creating additional value. Research from the University of Rochester points to this frontier. Its solar thermal desalination platform uses laser etched superwicking black metal to produce fresh water without chemical additives and to collect salts rather than discharge harmful liquid brine. The same research reported lithium recovery from residual salts, including about 50 percent lithium extraction in tests using Great Salt Lake water (University of Rochester, 2026). This is still an emerging technology, not a replacement for mature municipal systems. But strategically it signals where the sector is heading. The most attractive future assets may not only produce water. They may also recover materials, reduce disposal costs and support circular economy value chains.
The fourth principle is digital intelligence. As desalination becomes more integrated with renewables, storage, reuse and mineral recovery, operational complexity increases. Artificial intelligence, sensors, predictive maintenance and digital twins can help operators manage membranes, pumps, chemical dosing, energy inputs and maintenance cycles with much greater precision. Reviews of artificial intelligence in water treatment and desalination point to applications in process optimization, predictive maintenance and renewable energy management (Alenezi & Alabaiadly, 2025). Digital twin research in the water sector also frames infrastructure as something that can be monitored, simulated and optimized in real time (Ghorbani Bam et al., 2025). For investors, this is not a technology accessory. It is part of risk management. Better data can reduce downtime, improve performance transparency and strengthen confidence in long term service contracts.
The Salto de Chira project in Gran Canaria brings these ideas together at system level. The European Investment Bank is financing a 200 megawatt pumped storage hydropower station with an associated desalination plant. The objective is to improve power quality, reliability and supply security, increase renewable generation on an isolated grid, and provide water for irrigation and firefighting (European Investment Bank, 2024). This is the kind of integrated infrastructure thinking that climate vulnerable regions need. Desalination is not merely a water supply asset. It can become part of a broader water energy resilience strategy.
From a climate investment perspective, the implication is straightforward. The bankability of desalination will increasingly depend on more than capacity and tariff. Investors will look at energy intensity, exposure to power price volatility, brine management, permitting risk, climate resilience, public acceptance and the credibility of offtake arrangements. Public authorities will need procurement models that reward lifecycle performance rather than lowest upfront cost. Private developers will need to show that they can deliver reliable water while meeting tighter expectations on emissions, ecosystems and transparency.
This also aligns with Sustainable Development Goal 6. The SDG 6 agenda calls for safe water, improved water use efficiency, recycling, reuse, desalination and stronger international cooperation (United Nations, 2026). But desalination should not be framed as a silver bullet. It must sit within a wider water strategy that includes demand management, leakage reduction, wastewater reuse, watershed protection and inclusive governance. In my experience, the strongest climate investments are not those that solve one problem while creating another. They are the ones that deliver multiple benefits across resilience, mitigation, ecosystems and livelihoods.
The next phase of desalination will therefore be won by those who understand integration. The future is not simply bigger plants. It is smarter plants, cleaner plants and more accountable plants. It is desalination that works with renewable power rather than against it. It is brine treated as a resource where feasible. It is digital systems that make performance visible. And above all, it is water infrastructure designed not only for today’s scarcity, but for tomorrow’s climate uncertainty.
References
Alenezi, A., & Alabaiadly, Y. (2025). Artificial intelligence applications in water treatment and desalination: A comprehensive review. Water, 17(8), 1169. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17081169
European Investment Bank. (2024). Salto de Chira pumped storage hydro project. https://www.eib.org/en/projects/all/20220163
Ghorbani Bam, P., Rezaei, N., Roubanis, A., Austin, D., Austin, E., Tarroja, B., Takacs, I., Villez, K., & Rosso, D. (2025). Digital twin applications in the water sector: A review. Water, 17(20), 2957. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202957
IDE Technologies. (n.d.). Sorek II Desalination Plant Israel. https://ide-tech.com/en/project/sorek-b-desalination-plant/
San Diego County Water Authority. (n.d.). Seawater desalination. https://www.sdcwa.org/your-water/local-water-supplies/seawater-desalination/
San Diego County Water Authority. (2025, January 29). Study shows Carlsbad Desal Plant offers eco friendly water supply. https://www.sdcwa.org/study-shows-carlsbad-desal-plant-offers-eco-friendly-water-supply/
United Nations. (2026). Goal 6 Ensure access to water and sanitation for all. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/water-and-sanitation/
University of Rochester. (2026, May 27). New method turns ocean water into drinking water without waste. https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/what-is-desalination-definition-ocean-water-704732/
