Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) have increased across the integrated supply chain and global transportation network, driven by policy inconsistency, new technology, and global conflict layered on top of ordinary market cycles.
The over-the-road (OTR) truck market is a clear example. Enforced immigration policy, new English-language requirements for drivers, higher insurance costs, and rising equipment and fuel prices have combined to flip the market from shipper-favorable to carrier-favorable, catching many shippers without contracts or alternative-mode agreements in place as a hedge. While demand remains soft based on current economic and consumer behavior, the supply constraints indicate continued higher truckload costs.
Recent rate data shows the shift. Dry van spot rates climbed from roughly $1.85/mile in 2024 to a peak of $2.41/mile in July 2026 before a seasonal pullback to $2.19/mile in August, which is still more than 30% above year-ago levels. C.H. Robinson’s data shows the same pattern across equipment types: refrigerated rates up 31% and flatbed up 28% year over year, with both forecasted to rise another 10% through 2027. Those figures don’t yet include fuel surcharges.
The pending rail merger has also affected current and future intermodal and carload rail market prices. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are seeking regulatory approval to merge into the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad. The deal is still under federal review, with a decision expected in late 2027. If approved, shippers on a meaningful share of lanes would see competition shift from three-carrier to two-carrier, or from two-carrier to single-carrier, reducing the leverage that keeps rail pricing in check. The deal’s own economics add to that risk: the combined railroad would carry $1.4 billion in new annual fixed obligations it must service regardless of actual traffic, and PraxiChain’s Karen Burchfield has argued that the merger application offers no real plan for what happens if projected growth doesn’t materialize. “A merger application should not only present the upside case,” she writes. “It should demonstrate resiliency under downside conditions.” History suggests what happens when growth assumptions like these fall short: higher pricing for captive shippers.
Why pricing is only part of the risk
Single-mode or single-carrier strategies, and standard networks that worked well as a cost-minimization approach during 2024’s shipper-favorable rates, now carry outsized exposure. There will also be pressure on manufacturers (shippers) to consider better, more dynamic forecasting and consistency in production planning and scheduling to enable consideration of alternative shipping modes with different lead-time requirements. Routing reliability will decline as midsize and regional carriers prioritize shippers that offer load predictability.
“Mode and carrier diversification should be treated as infrastructure, the same way redundant suppliers or backup facilities are.”
– Chris Adderton, PraxiChain
What transportation network diversification actually means in practice
Evaluating rail and intermodal alternatives for lanes trucked by default or necessity and building relationships with regional carriers rather than depending on national contract capacity alone can reduce risk. Frame this as a resilience decision first.
The new market dynamics and structure are not expected to return to a shipper-favorable market for the foreseeable future. This will require developing new business relationships with both OTR truckload carriers and railroads to support specific business requirements. The core network assumptions and carrier options will need to be evaluated and updated with consistent review to address the market dynamics. Thoughtful applications of new demand planning processes enabled by AI should make this possible, mitigate risk, and reduce unexpected cost surprises or service issues. In the 2026 CSCMP State of Logistics report, Kearney, the report’s author, “frames AI value creation through four capabilities: interpret, predict, recommend, and execute,” which will improve performance and visibility and reduce unexpected risks to logistics plans and service.
The same diversification also reduces emissions
Every lane that shifts from truck-only to rail or intermodal as a risk hedge also reduces emissions. Emissions are not the main reason for the shift, but the benefit comes with it. According to the Association of American Railroads, moving freight by rail instead of truck cuts greenhouse gas emissions by up to 75%, because railroads are roughly four times more fuel-efficient and can move a ton of freight nearly 500 miles on a single gallon of fuel. Empty miles widen the gap on the trucking side. They ran at 16.5% of non-tank truck miles in 2025, only slightly better than 16.7% in 2024 and still high by historical standards. That means a real share of truck capacity is burning fuel and emitting carbon while carrying nothing. A more diversified network uses a cleaner mode and also reduces exposure to that empty-mile waste.
Forecasting the next disruption
New business processes to improve transportation planning are moving from standard route planning tools to more dynamic, smarter AI-enabled tools to continuously forecast and optimize all the options for carriers, modes, and facilities, considering all variables, not just carrier and lane dynamics (weather, traffic, capacity, unexpected demand, etc.).
Why risk infrastructure matters in a tightening market
In a carrier-favorable market, waste and inflexibility both get punished harder. A diversified, well-modeled network absorbs the rate environment better and has a lower baseline emissions footprint. Effective transportation management has been viewed as a cost, but it can also be an asset. Transportation is a critical part of the total supply chain and must be treated as an asset, not just as a buffer or shock absorber for inconsistent production plans or poor demand planning. With good visibility and quality data inputs, it will mitigate risk and satisfy planned and unexpected demand cost-effectively. The overall balance between transportation modes will always be a trade-off between time to serve anticipated planned demand and the unplanned demand available. OTR truckload vs. intermodal vs. rail is always a set of decisions based on forecast quality, time requirements to meet demand, and which transportation option best meets demand cost-effectively.
The market is forcing the issue
The 2026 freight market is pushing shippers toward a discipline they should have built already. The driver is cost and capacity risk rather than climate policy. Still, the response is the same in either case: treat network design as long-term infrastructure and review it regularly, instead of reacting to each market shift as it comes.
Actionable Steps for Shippers Now
- Evaluate rail and intermodal alternatives for lanes currently trucked by default, not just by necessity.
- Build relationships with regional and midsize carriers rather than relying solely on national contract capacity.
- Model 2027 rate exposure now, stress-testing budgets against a further cost increase.
- Adopt AI-enabled demand forecasting that optimizes across carriers, modes, and facilities, not just lane-by-lane routing.
About the Author:
Chris Adderton is a Project Manager and Senior Advisor at PraxiChain Consulting, where he leads OTR freight market analysis and supply chain design engagements. He brings decades of senior operations and customer service leadership from Conagra, AC Nielsen, and CSCMP, along with hands-on experience directing major supply chain systems implementations. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Missouri–Columbia.
Bio Link: https://praxichain.com/expert/chris-adderton/
Questions/inquiries: Email Amy McManus, Partner, at amy.mcmanus@praxichain.com
Sources/Links:
- ACT Research, Truck Freight Rates – Freight Forecast (July 2026 peak, $2.41/mile) — https://www.actresearch.net/resources/data-tracking/freight-trucking-rates
- DAT Freight & Analytics, August 2026 release ($2.19/mile, steepest July-to-August pullback in DAT’s 16-year history) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/15/3362237/0/en/dat-spot-van-rate-falls-20-cents-in-steepest-august-pullback-on-record.html
- DAT Blog, weekly dry van report (pullback context) — https://www.dat.com/blog/dry-van-report-rates-cool-from-the-summer-peak-but-stay-near-the-top-of-the-range
- H. Robinson data, cited in PraxiChain’s OTR Market Intelligence Report, June 2026
- PraxiChain Article, https://praxichain.com/the-1-4-billion-question-in-the-up-ns-merger/
- 2026 CSCMP’s State of Logistics Report: https://cscmp.org/CSCMP/CSCMP/Educate/State_of_Logistics_Report.aspx
- AAR, Freight Railroads Help Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions (fact sheet — covers the 75% GHG reduction and ~4x fuel efficiency figures) — https://www.aar.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/AAR-Railroads-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions.pdf
- AAR, Freight Rail and Climate Change (covers the “nearly 500 miles per gallon per ton” figure) — https://www.aar.org/issue/freight-rail-climate-change/
- ATRI 2025 Update summary (16.7% deadhead figure, 2024 data) — https://www.cottinghambutler.com/post/2025-trucking-operational-costs-and-industry-trends-key-takeaways-from-atri-s-latest-report
- com, “Trucking is getting more expensive. ATRI report explains why” (coverage of ATRI’s 2026 Operational Costs of Trucking Update, reporting the 16.5% 2025 non-tank deadhead figure) — https://www.thetrucker.com/trucking-news/business/trucking-is-getting-more-expensive-atri-report-explains-why
